Preventing global extinction of the Javan Rhino: Tsunami risk and future conservation direction

The Javan rhino (Rhinoceros sondaicus) is one of the most threatened mammals
on Earth. The only remaining individuals live as part of a small population iso-
lated in a single protected area, Ujung Kulon National Park, Java, Indonesia.
Despite almost a century of studies, little is known about the factors that af-
fect Javan rhino demography and distribution. National park officials require
such information to identify conservation strategies and track the success and
failures of these efforts; translocating selected individuals to establish a second
population has been considered, but the risks must be weighed. We show that
the 2013 global population of Javan rhinos was 62 individuals, which is likely
near the site’s carrying capacity. Our analysis of rhino distribution indicates
that tsunamis are a significant risk to the species in Ujung Kulon, justifying the
risks of establishing additional populations. Continued individual-based mon-
itoring is needed to guide future translocation decisions.